With only 11 days before Bangladesh goes to elections, a Bangladesh Army-led joint law enforcement team raided Kator village of Dhanpur union in Kishoreganj-4 constituency in the wee hours of February 1.
Led by Major Saiyed Masud, the joint force (stationed at Itna police station area) swooped down on several villages in Dhanpur union and arrested Bulu Das, a BNP supporter, for alleged possession of country liquor.
In a similar raid on January 31 at Bishnupur village of Dhanpur union, the joint task force team picked up Keshab Chakraborty, Hara Gopal Das and Pranab Das, besides a woman, Swapnarani Das of Subhadrapur village, on charges of possession of illicit liquor.
Early this morning, speaking with Northeast News over phone, a harrowed Fazlur Rahman, the BNP candidate for Kishoreganj-4 constituency – comprising Itna, Mithamoin and Austagram sub-districts – complained about the joint task force’s “harassment” of members of the Hindu minority.
“Bulu Das of Kator village was apprehended and beaten up in police custody,” an ailing Rahman said before leaving by road for his constituency.
A source in Dhanpur union, which was previously under the control of the Awami League before the July-August 2024 regime change in Bangladesh, said that the Jamaat-e-Islami’s candidate, Rokon Reza Sheikh (who hails from Jaisiddhi union) had descended on the union villages with his party workers to seek Hindu votes.
“Reza campaigned in the villages on January 30 as well and sought to project the Jamaat as a protector of the Hindus,” the source, whose identity cannot be disclosed for security reasons, said.
Across many districts of Bangladesh, even as there is little or no popular enthusiasm or involvement ahead of the February 12 polls, there is now intense campaigning for Awami League votes in general and the support of Hindus in particular.
While the Awami League’s central leadership, which is in India since August 2024, has taken a decision that its supporters must refrain from exercising their franchise on election day, anecdotal evidence and reports from the districts suggest that beleaguered party workers and supporters may vote tactically across Bangladesh’s 64 districts.
The Hindu minority, which has been in the face of deadly attacks – many of them fatal – since the Mohammad Yunus-led interim regime assumed power in August 2024, may also follow a similar pattern and exercise their preference for either the BNP or the Jamaat, depending on their perceived understanding of which party will protect them in the short, medium and long terms.
In Sunamganj-2 constituency, which was a bastion of long-deceased Awami League leader Suranjit Sengupta, the Hindu minority could swing vote in favour of the Jamaat-e-Islami, a local Awami Leaguer, who practices in the Supreme Court in Dhaka, said.
Dhaka-based political analysts said that even as the electoral picture remains fragmented, with little to show whether the BNP or the Jamaat could emerge with figures upward of the 151 magic number – Bangladesh’s total parliamentary seat stands at 300 – the pitch can become complicated in the event the controversial referendum, also to be held on February 12, takes place.
More importantly, the Jamaat has emerged as a formidable pretender to political power. An internal assessment conducted about 10 days ago indicated that it would secure outright victory in 76 seats and will be involved in tough contest with the BNP in 85 other constituencies.
Political analysts said that while the Jamaat has “gained some traction” among the people since August 2024, it “will have to depend on a large segment of the Awami League supporters to go anywhere close to the half-way mark of 151, which can be possible only if Sheikh Hasina’s party workers and sympathisers vote tactically”.
In Rangpur Division comprising eight districts, an informal analysis by local journalists indicates that of the 33 total seats, the Jamaat may come up trumps in 17 constituencies, while the BNP may secure 11 seats with the rest distributed among the Jatiya Party and others.
Indeed, Jatiya Party candidate from Rangpur-1 constituency Masihur Rahman Ranga, expressed fears that voting may not be impartial.
In the event the Jamaat is able to secure 17 seats in the eight districts of the Rangpur Division, it would be equivalent to the party’s performance in the 2001 election when it was in alliance with the BNP which is now its only rival.
The Jamaat’s all-time best electoral performance was in 1991 when, again in a pre-poll tie-up with the BNP, it had won 18 seats.
However, in the 39 seats across Rajshahi Division, the BNP is pipped to win 23 and the Jamaat-e-Islami may secure 16 seats this time.
The Jamaat holds some sway in Rajshahi, among a few other districts, including Satkhira under Khulna Division and some in Northeast Bangladesh.
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A few weeks ago, Jamaat-e-Islami Amir Shafiqur Rahman had admitted that he had met and discussed issues related to the elections with an “Indian official” whom he did not identify.
This set off speculations over how deeply the Indian establishment might be invested in the Jamaat which, during the Awami League’s tenure, was considered a political pariah.
A few days after Shafiqur Rahman’s revelation, the Indian High Commission in Dhaka invited Jamaat General Secretary Ghulam Parwar, who is contesting from Khulna-5 constituency, for a Republic Day function at the mission, indicating a “new engagement” with a party that continues to be identified as an anti-liberation force.
Earlier, following an August 2025 coronary artery bypass surgery on Shafiqur Rahman, two Indian diplomats quietly met the Jamaat amir in the wee hours after Fajr namaaz at his Basundhara residence.
What set off more speculations was a Washington Post story that used an audio recording of a US diplomat, till recently posted in Dhaka, to indicate that sections of the State Department and American security establishment was prepared to do business with the Jamaat in the event of an electoral victory.
This, Dhaka-based political analysts suggested, was a sign that besides the Indian authorities, US officials were now not reluctant to recognise the Jamaat as a “legitimate political force” that could make a bid for power, should elections take place.
