After Bangladesh announced the upcoming national elections next January, there is not much excitement or rejoicing in the governing Awami League, amid mainstream opposition calls for a series of countrywide shutdowns demanding that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina step down and an interim government supervise the election.
Sheikh Hasina has been in continuous power for 15 years after winning three consecutive elections. Her government held two elections in 2014 and 2018, which according to election observers and media has been dubbed as tainted with massive vote fraud.
However, posters and banners are visible in cities and towns of aspiring candidates for the coveted post of a lawmaker in the 12th parliament who would be seated in an iconic building designed by an award-winning American architect Louis Kahn in the 60s.
It would be too early to predict the 300 lawmakers and additional 50 reserved seats for women Member of Parliament (MP) who would finally be seated in the magnificent parliament building. They will be entitled to lucrative perks including a permit for a tax-free imported vehicle, a full-furnished flat for the accommodation of their family and henchmen, besides wages and allowances.
It seems Awami League is not prepared on the ground for the upcoming election scheduled on 7th January 2024, observed a liberation war veteran retired military officer [name withdrawn for his security] who is respected by the inner circle of the government.
The war-decorated soldier said that the party could have resolved the internal squabbles first. In every political and national event, reports of fist-fighting, throwing chairs and hurling abusive language at opponents of the party leaders, often find space in the media.
Most embarrassing news comes from every corner of the country regarding the ‘golden boys’ (Chhatra League, student wing of the ruling Awami League) who are involved in various crimes, extortion from traders and conglomerates, and encounters with government officials and crossing their limits in attacking and intimidating journalists.
The party headquarters at Bangabandhu Avenue in the centre of the capital seldom resolved the pending disputes that erupted from intra-party feuds. Keeping the issues alive has severely weakened the party hierarchy in cities and small towns, said political historian Mohiuddin Ahmad.
Most of the lawmakers and district leaders who are anchored in the capital Dhaka seldom visit their constituencies in fear of being unwelcomed by their dissidents who denounced allegiance to the elected leadership. This is a sheer weakness of establishing party hierarchy in the 64 districts, said Ahmad.
Keeping these pressing issues alive, Awami League is taking the party into a crucial ballot voting. Awami League’s leadership is taking the party to war of votes when there is a narrow scope of the opposition to participate in the upcoming polls.
Awami League hopes that some rebel opposition leaders will participate in the elections and is willing to sacrifice a few breadcrumbs for them to walk into the parliament.
The security agencies are working long hours for the government party to encourage leaders to rebel against Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leadership and also among the tightly knitted Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) to participate in the elections. In this regard, a favourable wind of change could be observed as a couple of fronts for BNP and Islamist party have been floated and recently registered with the Election Commission.
Awami League does not have any contingency plan if the opposition BNP and its alliance decide to join the elections after a political settlement at the behest of the United States and its Indian ally. So far the governing party is happy with the decision of the opposition to boycott the election.
On the home front, there is a fear that the Awami League will usher in new faces in the race, which Sheikh Hasina and her party’s deputy Mahbubul Alam Hanif have said a long time ago.
Such a move will give scope for aspirant candidates within the party to contest the elections as independent candidates. It was said that more than a hundred new faces would find entry in the 12th national election.
The game will begin when a hundred former lawmakers will be shown the exit after obtaining a promissory note that they will continue to keep their party leadership, subject to actively joining the election campaign for those who would obtain the coveted party ticket.
Eventually, the party will open another front when those fallen lawmakers or aspirant candidates fail to get party tickets. Most of them, as it happened in previous elections would field as independent candidates, said Ahmad.
In the absence of opposition on the ground, most of the clashes are expected to occur with supporters and henchmen of the rebellions, who are from the same party.
This time the number of independent candidates is expected to be much higher than in past elections. This awkward situation will end up in a chaotic election scenario in 2024, which Bangladesh has never witnessed before.
Meanwhile, Sheikh Hasina called upon all political parties of the country, including BNP and JeI, to participate in the upcoming national election. “The door of election is open to all…They [BNP and JeI] should seek apology to the nation for their crimes and then take part in the 12th national parliamentary election,” the Awami League president set a condition for the opposition.
The governing party General Secretary Obaidul Qader and also the Road Transports and Bridges Minister said that he is hopeful that the principal opposition BNP would join the polls.
It could not be ascertained how he assumed that the opposition would participate when thousands of party members and most of the central leadership were languishing in prisons facing hundreds of cases of terrorism, sabotage and obstructing police from their duties.
In another argument, journalist and columnist Sakhawat Hossain writes in the largest circulated Bangla newspaper, the Prothom Alo that the onus is on the government to create favourable conditions for election.
No one can comprehend how the election commission may establish the authority they are supposed to have after announcing the schedule. The main point is that a fair, acceptable and inclusive election environment has not been created, writes Hossain.
In an editorial in an independent newspaper the New Age asked the Election Commission to step down and said “the Election Commission’s announcement of the schedule for the 12th parliamentary elections was impractical.”
The editorial writes that the commission has announced the election schedule at a time when the United Nations, the European Union, the United States and other countries have urged the government to resolve the ongoing political impasse by holding dialogues with stakeholders.
In a development, a letter from US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu was handed to the governing Awami League, BNP and “loyal opposition” Jatiya Party.
In response to the letter from Donald Lu, Obaidul Quader, in the capacity of General Secretary of the party stated that engaging in dialogue with opposition parties is currently not feasible due to time constraints and said the “time for dialogue is over”.
However, BNP leader Dr Moyeen Khan said the dialogue has to be meaningful. Talks must aim at resolving the current political crisis for “confidence building” and “restoration of trust” among all parties.
A former American diplomat who was posted in Bangladesh Jon Danilowicz writes in South Asia Perspective that over the past year, the United States has invested considerable diplomatic energy in an effort to promote free, fair and inclusive elections in Bangladesh as part of a broader attempt to promote democracy and human rights.
It may be that a policy of “business as usual” while pushing for democracy and human rights has sent mixed messages to the regime and observers on all sides.
Bangladesh is smack in the middle of US-China, India-China and increasingly US-Russia competition. It will find itself under growing pressure in the coming days.
In the current environment, it is not realistic to think that the U.S. will abandon its support for democracy and human rights and fall in line with India, China and Russia, concluded the former diplomat who is dubbed as pro-opposition.
Political analyst Michael Kugelman, Director of Wilson Centre’s South Asia Institute based in Washington DC in an interview with the Daily Star that Bangladesh to face growing pressure in days to come.
While Washington had been repeating its calls for a free and fair election in Bangladesh, while Delhi after much silence, told the American top leaders of the Biden administration that it was Bangladesh’s “internal issue”.
Bangladesh is smack in the middle of US-China, India-China and increasingly US-Russia competition. It will find itself under growing pressure in the coming days.
If Dhaka can play the balancing role, it will be better. I see that India has been able to play that role very well and maintain a strong relationship with the US and Russia throughout the difficult moments.
Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter: @saleemsamad
