Lt Gen Arun Sahni, a former Army Commander is a decorated soldier with 40 years of varied experience in counter-insurgency operations, border management and military diplomacy. Operational military service, training in the UK and being a military diplomat in Russia, has endowed him with an incisive strategic insight into issues of security & defense, geostrategic developments, disruptive changes in the extended neighborhood, terrorism, and cyber security. He is a Distinguished Fellow with Think Tanks, mentors’ startups, steers an environment policy group and is a strategic advisor to a leading Corporate, for its Make in India – Defence initiatives. He is also an accomplished sportsman, an avid golfer and Vice President Indian Polo Association. Excerpts:
Jonathan Roy Tariang: Sir, what are your views on the security situation in Manipur, Nagaland?
Gen. Sahni: At the outset I wish to state, that events in any of the North Eastern States, be it Myanmar, Manipur or any of the other ‘seven sisters’ States, have a negative impact on the peace, security and stability of this ethnically fragile region.
It is commendable that focus and persistent effort to ‘walk the talk’ by the current political leadership, at the apex level, since 2014, has resulted in visible and meaningful gains across the complete spectrum of security and development in the NE States. However, the current ethnic clashes that started in May this year in Manipur, and the scaling up of internecine fighting between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the EAGs has been a dampener to the meaningful gains made in NE Region. The continuation of the mayhem in Manipur is indeed regrettable, was avoidable and is retrograde for the envisioned road map for a peaceful and secure NE.
Manipur is undoubtedly a critical element for India’s Act East Policy and land connectivity to the vibrant ASEAN Countries – the global economic Center of gravity. Longer the ongoing clashes continue between the Kuki’s and Meiteis, more difficult will be the rapprochement between the two. Already there has been a partial ethnic relocation with now two districts predominantly under Kuki control. The bloodshed and emotional disintegration and trust between the Kuki and Meiteis will itself take another few years for equanimity and will impede the overall development of Manipur. The surrender of UNLF Pambei faction is a good thing but it is two edged sword for the larger majority of the UNLF cadre is still at large.
The events in Manipur will have an indirect impact on the security of Nagaland, as the primary protagonist in the North East continues to be the NSCN IM, with its footprint in MNH. It will once again exploit the polarisation in Manipur for financial gains by rendering assistance to the VBIGs and Kuki groups in their cross border movement and machination by the inimical elements, as it controls the main infiltration route, through the Somra tract.
There has however been great pragmatism shown by the Centre and State Govt of Nagaland in addressing the demands of the ENPO, which could have been another source of instability. Overall the security situation in Nagaland is stable.
JRT: Myanmar is experiencing civil strife. What is your prognosis?
AS:The current indicators from open source reports indicate that the Myanmar army/ Tatmadaw, is under pressure from the ethnically armed groups (EAGs), the ‘three Brother Alliance’ of the Arakan Army, the MNDAA from Kokang region in Shan State and Ta’ang National Liberation Army from Shan State. These forces have gained control of key areas and cities in the in the northern part of Shan State, since launch of Operation1027 and 1107 inearly November. Many other fringe groups across the country have extended support to the EAGs and have become active and offensive. The PDF of the NUG have also now joined these EAGs, in their fight against the Myanmar Army.
The direct impact on us in India, is that instability in Myanmar, will gives greater space to IIGs to operate and further add fuel to the fire in Manipur. We are witnessing this with the Kuki groups of neighbouring Sagaing Province of Myanmar, extending physical and military hardware support, to the Kukis in Manipur. Also, with the cross border ethnic linkages we will see more and more refugees seeking shelter in the bordering NE States. The impact of this on the aspirations of the locals has already had an impact on the recent State elections in Mizoram.
JRT: How is the Naga ceasefire fairing? Is there a possibility of a settlement?
AS: To accommodate the aspirations of the Naga Insurgent groups, there is a need for the Partnership Agreement of 2015 with IM and other NNPGs, to be taken to its logical conclusion of getting these groups to join the mainstream.
In my view for that to happen, the State Govt of Nagaland will have to show a big heart and give other Naga tribes like the Tangkhul and other smaller Naga ethnic groups a quasi-resident status in the State of Nagaland. To achieve this rapprochement with the establishment and the residents of Nagaland, there is a major constructive role that can be played by the Church and other CSOs of Nagaland. The Centre should look at giving shape to this with active engagement with all the parties.
JRT: Finally, how do you perceive the McMahon Line dispute with China?
AS: The territorial dispute with China will not be resolved in a hurry, aslong as China views India as a competitor and a hurdle for achieving its vision of being a leading power, in the future global order. The current belligerence and hegemonistic intentions of China is in direct conflict with that of USA and the other liberal democracies. India is seen to be leaning towards the ‘other camp’ and this creates an environment of distrust, between India and China and impedes any resolution of the dispute.
The McMahon line was accepted in principal by China in earlier official deliberations, both post 1962 and in the ‘border resolution talks’, in early 2000. Also, disputed areas were identified, with patrolling rights accepted as per a mutually acceptable mandate. However, there is no formal agreement yet, except for the ‘central sector’ of the border. China will therefore continue to keep this as an unresolved issue, to utilised and exploited based on emerging situations.
I am however positive that post India’s national elections in 2024, in the era of Modi 3.0, there will be progress. China respects strong leaders and India’s growing economic stature and leverage in the global arena, will set the stage for dialogue. I am an optimist and am confident that the current Political leadership has the vision to address critical issues at the opportune time, be it the border dispute or favourable conclusion of the Naga accord, in the near future.
