Even as pro-democracy insurgent forces in Myanmar have made significant military gains against the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Army) in different parts of the conflict-ridden country, some units of the latter have regrouped in recent times and begun aerial bombing on rebel Arakan Army camps in the northern parts of the Rakhine State bordering Bangladesh.
Also, according to reports prepared by Indian security forces, there was “considerable bombing” by Tatmadaw attack helicopters in the general area covering Doukhiong, Muilawa and Rweshantha in eastern Chin State on December 27.
While Mizoram shares a 408-km-long international border with Myanmar, the Chin State is north of the Rakhine State which is on the west coast bordering some portions of the Chittagong Division of Bangladesh.
Fierce fighting between Tatmadaw units and insurgent forces in the Chin State over the last year or so has forced an estimated 33,000 refugees into Mizoram.
Between August and November 2023, about 105 Myanmar Army soldiers also fled the fighting to cross over to Mizoram, were quickly sent back across the border.
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Even as intense battle rages on in the Arakan State, Myanmarese army units fled their camps in northern Arakan State in the first week of December.
These areas were subsequently occupied by the by Arakan Army rebels. However, it took several days before the Myanmarese army could actively engage attack helicopters that dropped bombs and missiles that do “not seem to have made much impact” on the ground.
Based on intelligence reports, Indian security forces’ analyses suggest that the Arakan Army rebels are generally in control of non-urban centres in northern Rakhine while the fighting with the Tatmadaw continue in the outlying hilly and forested areas.
It is strongly suspected that the Arakan Army gets arms and ammunition supplies from areas in control of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) which is based out of the Kokang region where they wield considerable influence and are reportedly involved in opium harvesting and heroin-refining.
Besides its alliance with the Arakan Army, the MNDAA operates in close cooperation with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).
Both the MNDAA and the TNLA have successfully launched military attacks against the Myamnar Army in the Northern Shan State since early May 2021. The MNDAA was part of the coordinated ‘Operation 1027’ (after October 27) that seized several Tatmadaw positions in the Northern Shan State. Early this month, the outfit claimed to have killed a Tatmadaw brigadier general.
Indian intelligence reports indicate that even as the Arakan Army has undertaken some “bold” military moves over the last one month, it is “not close to defeating” the Myanmar Army, which has a strong ground and naval presence, in the Rakhine State.
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The Tatmadaw is said to have “enough” troop strength to deal with the Arakan Army which also gets weapons supplies from the powerful United Wa State Army (UWSA) which is the military wing of the United Wa State Party which controls the Wa Self-Administered Division.
Essentially, three Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) – MNDAA, TNLA and the Arakan Army – assisted by other Peoples’ Defence Militias (PDFs), are leading the insurgents’ military operations in Myanmar.
Within two weeks of the beginning of ‘Operation 1027’, these three forces seized several towns along the Chinese border, overrun military bases and captured large stocks of munitions.
A November 2023 report stated that the Sagaing region north of Mandalay and bordering Manipur and Nagaland witnessed fresh fighting even as the Myanmar junta declared martial law in certain towns in Shan, Chin and Kayah states and Sagaing region.
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Over the last couple of months, as per unconfirmed reports, there was some ground-level coordination between the Arakan Army and at least two units of the Bangladesh army in areas bordering the Rakhine State even as Indian security forces term the relationship between these two forces as “unclear”.
However, Indian security agencies are certain that a military stalemate situation prevails in the Rakhine State with neither the Myanmar Army nor the Arakan Army is in any position to prevail over one another anytime soon. As such, it is their analysis that the “war of attrition will continue” and that there could only be a political negotiation in the future.
