The fall of Paletwa, a critical port town on the Kaladan river in Myanmar’s Chin State, to the Arakan Army (AA) rebel group last week has caused a flood of defeated Myanmar Army troops to flee and cross over to bordering Mizoram in India even as the military junta’s forces continue to be in a dominating position in adjoining Rakhine State that borders Bangladesh.
In the largest cross-over of fleeing Myanmar Army (MA) soldiers in recent times, a batch of 277 such troops walked across the India-Myanmar border before giving themselves up to Assam Rifles personnel at Bandukbanga on January 17 afternoon, according to reports prepared by Indian security forces posted in the restive frontier region.
Led by a colonel rank officer, the MA soldiers “fled from their camp located at Karma river junction and reached Bandukbanga” in Mizoram’s Lawngtlai district, the reports, accessed by Northeast News, say.
The MA (or Tatmadaw) soldiers had “deserted their camps and fled for fear of being attacked by the rebels” and had brought along their weapons which were taken into custody by the Assam Rifles forces.
The soldiers were also “taken into custody and brought to COB Parva by 20th Assam Rifles” troops before being shifted to COB Zorinpui. Following sustained questioning, the MA soldiers were despatched to Aizawl from where they were flown to Delhi and onward to Myanmar.
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On January 6, 104 MA soldiers “fled from the conflict zone in Chin State” and crossed over to the Indian border village of Lungpuk in Mizoram’s Siaha district.
They had “crossed the IMB (India-Myanmar border) near BP (border pillar) No. 15 which is approximately 33 km (aerial) from Tri-junction and approximately 26 km (aerial) from Parva”.
The MA soldiers were shifted to Aizawl on January 7 before arrangements were made for their onward journey back to Myanmar.
Earlier, on December 29, “consequent to clashes between MA and AA, as many as 151” troops, including 13 officers, of the former had fled from their camps located in Muilawa, Myuikwa and Meilangtlang in the Chin State and crossed the border before entering Tuisentlang village in Lawngtlai district.
Speaking to Northeast News, an Indian security force officer said on the condition of anonymity that “the frequency of such crossing over by MA troops had gone up considerably even as more and more of these soldiers seek refuge in Indian territory. Our reports indicate that the MA troops in the Chin State are not only on the run, but the AA forces have near-complete dominance in that Myanmar province”.
The battlefield situation in the Rakhine State, which is south of Chin State, continues to remain in favour of the MA which, according to an assessment by one of the rebel groups, controlled 68 per cent of that province.
“The military situation remains tilted in the MA’s favour in the Rakhine State although the AA’s strength remains considerable. They are resolute in their action and continue to hold ground,” the officer said.
Meanwhile, reports indicate that military situation along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border – the Rakhine State and the Chittagong Hill Tracts – was quite tense following brief skirmishes between the two sides over the last two weeks.
While the Bangladesh Army headquarters has remained tightlipped, sources confirmed that soldiers posted in the region have moved back to a depth of 4 km inside their own territory to avoid any casualties.
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With Paletwa reportedly firmly in the AA’s control, the rebel outfit’s spokesperson Khine Thu Kha said in a statement, soon after the crucial town was over-run, that the insurgent group will take over administration and law enforcement in the area. The port town is key to trade with neighbouring countries.
According to an assessment by a Myanmarese rebel groups battling the Tatmadaw, all the major insurgent outfits across the battle-scarred country, the fighting that began in April 2021 led to over 45,000 “conflict incidents” (till October 2023) with the Sagaing Division topping the list of 15 states and provinces.
In Sagaing alone, nearly 15,000 “conflict incidents” were recorded till December end. The Sagaing Division borders India’s Manipur and Nagaland states.
Between April 2021 and October 2023, the Chin and Rakine states accounted for 1,376 and 952 “conflict incidents”, respectively.
The above assessment shows that while the MA’s dominance (apart from Rakhine State) remained strong to moderately strong in Yangon and Ayeyarawady regions, the Tatmadaw’s areas of operation had shrunk considerably across all the other 12 states and provinces.
In October 2023, the MA held 28 per cent and 20 per cent of ground in the Shan State and Nay Pyi Taw which is Myanmar’s capital and lies north of Yangon, the former capital.
The various Myamarese insurgent groups that began fighting the Tatmadaw have been steadily gaining military ground since April 2021. While nearly three years ago, 283 townships were affected in the civil war, the number rose to 306 in 2022, followed by 301 between January and October 2023.
In October 2023 alone, as many as 210 townships were militarily affected, indicating the extent of the fighting between the rebel groups and the MA across Myanmar.
