The Indian hinterland is in trouble.
The neighbourhood has been compromised with extraordinary inroads.
But strategic forethought, unfortunately, cannot be addressed just on the basis of the visible and the apparent.
A vigil time is always a necessity. As is forward perspective planning in waiting.
The Bangladesh scenario is perhaps one which demands an await time.
The fact that there is now a new engagement between New Delhi and the “new” Yunus dispensation in Dhaka points to such an imperative.
It augurs a positive outlook.
As Khalil Gibran said, “When I planted my pain in the field of patience it bore fruit of happiness.”
The watchword, therefore, is to wait and watch.
Indeed, a new concept of warfare by way of “strategic patience” has come to the fore.
It is interesting that India should be the harbinger of the novel idea. The nation has grown out of its earlier impatience, albeit the colonial yoke that had fettered it. The fresh compulsions in the neighbourhood, too, provided it the opportunity.
The new Modi leadership has, after all, shown a novel disha for the nation.
But on the other hand, the manner in which Manipur scenario is careering out control is an interesting prism for high Indian introspection.
The drone strikes that have reportedly taken place recently will unleash an altogether new battleground format for the North East. It would be difficult to extricate the situation if such a proliferation is permitted. It has to be stopped.
Drones are aplenty in a universe that is forever in conflict. Therefore the question is not about procurement of such armaments.
But in the Manipur theatre the lethal UAVs would have certainly originated from across the border. Myanmar, where a serious civil war is in progress would be the logical guess. But it is not correct to even fathom that the Drones came from within India, or from Indian agencies.
Experience informs that when the guard is down the jackals will reach the courtyard, and from forestlands afar.
It is also very easy to speak about a spill over effect. Porous borders will naturally feel the fires from across imaginary lines.
During my last visit to Senapati and Kangpokpi regions of Manipur in May 2024, I realised that lines are actually imaginary. Hosted by the Senapati District Students’ Union (Yonuo Peter) I understood that Pan-Naga aspiration is a reality. The manner in which the Nagas of Manipur extend support to the NSCN (IM) is incredible.
It would take great spadework by New Delhi to solve the Naga riddle. Education about the Naga social formation should be perhaps the first step. I wonder if the high mandarins know about Tenyimia and the way the Naga tribal affiliations, across borders, snake into one another. This is one of the aspects that was enforced during my May 2024 visit.
Incidentally, there could just be an interim understanding between New Delhi and leaders of the NSCN (IM) such as Anthony Shimray and VS Atem soon. The fact that Hanshi has been asked to come back from Myanmar (and his reported mission to China) indicates a positive breakthrough in the Indo-Naga dialogue process.
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But once again “Strategic Patience” has to be complied with. The new essence is slowly being disseminated.
It is important to maintain strict vigil.
The “Arc of Conflict” as it encompasses the North East, Bangladesh and Myanmar is becoming curiouser and curiouser.
