The effort to talk peace with the NSCN (IM) began with Prime Minister PV NarasimhaRao meeting the two stalwarts, Isak Chishi Swu and Thuingaleng Muivah, in Paris (France) in 1995, and it carried through to the tenure of seven Prime Ministers, which H.D. DeveGowda once described as ‘constructive diplomacy’ by India.
Even to this day, the NSCN (IM) termed this initiative a welcomed move and a change of mind on the part of India, with the realization that a military solution was no longer the option.
Having accepted the Naga problem as a political issue and not a law and order one, a ceasefire was officially declared on August 1, 1997. It was also agreed that the talk would be held at the Prime Minister’s level without any preconditions and on third-country soil.
Accordingly, the preliminary rounds of talks were held in different countries. The Amsterdam Joint Communiqué, signed on July 11, 2002, was a path-breaking one.
It officially recognizes the “unique history of the Nagas.” This being a major breakthrough, Isak Chishi Swu and Thuingaleng Muivah were formally invited by the GoI to shift base to New Delhi to facilitate frequent meetings, a proposal the NSCN (IM) also positively reciprocated.
Thus, Chairman Isak Chishi Swu and General Secretary Th. Muivah finally moved to Delhi. For the Naga public thirsting to see a solution, this was news that brought cheers, and there were expectations all around.
Unfortunately, however, the wait lingered on, testing the patience of the Naga public yet again.
The biggest leap in the peace process came in the form of the much-publicized signing of the Framework Agreement on August 3, 2015, in the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who also made certain encouraging remarks that sounded like music to the ears of the Naga leaders. In response, Th. Muivah said that if India takes one step, the Nagas would be prepared to take ten to ensure that both arrive at a settlement that is mutually honourable.
The Naga public sensed that a solution was probably around the corner, and in the Naga-inhabited areas of Manipur, Assam, and Arunachal Pradesh, as well as in the adjoining areas of Myanmar, people prayed for the early close of the talks.
There were positive vibes all over. Sadly, however, it took just one wrong move to dispel this trust and good will that the signing of the Framework Agreement invested.
In the 2019 Parliamentary elections, the Bhartiya Janata Party returned to power with a thumping majority, and among the steps prioritized by the Government of India was the abrogation of Article 370.
Highlighting the achievement of his government within 10 weeks of returning to power, Prime Minister Modi pronounced from the pulpit of the Red Fort in his Independence Day speech that “one nation, one constitution spirit has now become a reality,” impinging directly on the principal demand of the Nagas to have a flag and a constitution of their own.
India also had a Home Minister, who many believed had little appreciation for the sensitive Naga issue and who apparently expressed a desire to conclude the Naga peace talks by October 2019.
When this intention was conveyed by the then government interlocutor, the Naga leadership fumed and quite naturally interpreted it as a shift from the spirit of the talk—a talk that was agreed to be held without any pre-conditions and in the spirit of mutual respect.
The NSCN (IM) also took it as India trying to dictate terms, and they too hardened their stand on not accepting anything short of a demand for a constitution and a flag.
And so, a parley that sailed quite promisingly suddenly turned sore. The positive vibes vanished into thin air, while acrimonious accusations from both sides took centre stage.
So much so that on November 20, 2020, the NSCN (IM) issued a strongly worded press release stating, “The Naga people’s sincere approach and search for permanent peace have been taunted time and again to suit India’s colonial divide and rule policy, with the Ministry of Home Affairs issuing a directive to the Assam Rifles to intensify operations against the NSCN (IM).” It warned that the patience of the Nagas should not be read as a weakness.
Since then, there has been no positive development worth mentioning, despite the appointment of a new government interlocutor. In mainland India, many Naga issue watchers saw this development as the government perhaps playing the waiting game because Muivah proves to be a hard nut to crack.
Within the Naga public, there is a trending suspicion that the Government of India is not really serious about finding a solution, therefore deliberately delaying the process while attempting to clandestinely divide society.
Behind closed doors; the Naga public also talked of possible delaying tactics by their own leaders, whom they suspect were not prepared to move away from their comfort zone.
Either way, the inordinate delay in arriving at some solution is slowly but surely beginning to raise questions about the credibility of the Government of India and the NSCN (IM) as well, on whom much of people’s hope hinges.
The larger question now is: who among the two would make the first accommodating move to salvage the relationship?
Come March 23, 2024, and Thuingaleng Muivah will be celebrating his 90th birthday. Whether people like it or not, for him, age is just a number.
He continues to stand tall as a leader, focusing on his vision, which is revered and respected both within the cadres and the public. His adversaries are plenty, but even among them, there are silent admirers for his unwavering commitment to the Naga people’s cause and dogged determination to uphold the Naga pride.
In other words, he continues to hold sway. It is this popularity and command he enjoys that the Government of India must recognize and take advantage of; if at all there is seriousness to solve the problem.
In a recent internal arrangement, General Retired, VS Atem, was appointed as the Deputy Ato Kilonser. Insiders say that this was done with a view to spare the octogenarian leader the hassles of frequent travel. General Atem, being someone who is well-versed in national and international compulsions and gifted with the inherent quality to exercise patience and listen when others speak, would certainly relax his counterpart.
However, it would be unrealistic to expect that with this change, there will be a softening of the Nagas stand on their core demand.
In the present scheme of things, it is the government of India that holds the advantage, being the big brother. Wisdom demands that it is the one occupying the pedestal position that should show greater magnanimity.
If the Government of India is really keen on ending this imbroglio, compromises and concessions must come first from them. Like GK Pillai says, “Without solving the Naga issue, peace will not come to the north-eastern region.”.
On the Naga front, the NSCN (IM) must not brush aside talks of Naga public closed-door murmurs as mere gossip but rather reflect on them with some seriousness.
A word of caution for the Government of India: If at all there is some truth in the suspicions of mainland watchers, it will be the biggest mistake the government will live to regret.
(The Author is a retired IPS officer, who follows North East affairs closely. Views expressed are personal)
