By Enayet Kabir
US Assistant Secretary of State Paul Kapur created curiosity by arriving with much publicity and leaving Dhaka quietly. What message did he leave for the new political government led by Tarique Rahman? Several diplomatic sources claim that the visit was “resultless” and “pressuring in nature.”
Multiple diplomatic sources say that Bangladesh has informally agreed to the United States’ proposal to join a new US-India anti-China military alliance.
It is worth noting that the Sheikh Hasina government had repeatedly rejected the US’ request to join the anti-China military alliance Quad, while maintaining “parallel” relations with both India and China.
When Bangladesh refused to join the Quad alongside Japan, Australia, and the US, the alliance remained strategically incomplete. This time, however, Dhaka has reportedly given strategic consent to respond to a new US-India military alliance.
According to diplomatic sources, the agendas and priorities of both the United States and Bangladesh changed in the context of the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Bangladesh’s biggest agenda was to obtain energy assistance from the US, and Paul Kapur reportedly gave assurances on this matter.
On the other hand, the US urged Bangladesh to sign the ACSA agreement to obtain logistical support and access to Bangladesh’s airspace. However, Bangladesh did not take any decision on this. Regarding the February 12 election, Kapur expressed “satisfaction” during “informal” political discussions with the government.
According to the US embassy in Dhaka, his final official programme on March 6, 2026 included two events. First: “Assistant Secretary Kapur and Ambassador Christensen met with Prime Minister’s Adviser Humayun Kabir. They discussed U.S. strategic priorities in Bangladesh and strengthening regional security.”
In another message, the embassy stated that at Zia Udyan, Kapur and Ambassador Christensen paid tributes to former President Maj Gen Ziaur Rahman and former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia.
Neither Bangladesh’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs nor the US embassy issued any official briefing on how successful Kapur’s visit was.
During his three-day visit, Kapur held meetings with top leaders of the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami. He also met Energy Minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud Tuku and Commerce Minister Khandaker Moktadir Chowdhury, urging the implementation of the Trade Agreement (ART).
Bangladesh, according to the terms of the agreement, has promised to reduce the trade deficit by importing LNG and agricultural products. The energy minister requested “urgent energy assistance.”
However, in meetings with Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman, State Minister Shama Obaed and Adviser Humayun Kabir, the issues related to signing the GSOMIA and ACSA agreements could not be finalised. According to sources, although the discussions were productive, differences of opinion remain.
With active support from the US, Sheikh Hasina was removed from power, and Muhammad Yunus, with the backing of the military, held control of the state for 18 months. However, aside from the ART, he was unable to deliver other “deliverables.” The Port Quad, GSOMIA and ACSA remain pending.
Yunus was removed, and Tarique Rahman was flown in from London and placed in power. The US may give him some time to deliver the promised “deliverables.” But for how long?
The appointment of Khalilur Rahman, former National Security Adviser during the tenure of the interim government, as Foreign Minister has ensured an important American presence within the government.
However, diplomatic sources say forming a US-India anti-China military alliance will not be easy. Bangladesh is reluctant to join such an alliance, and Russia also objects. India has already signed military agreements with Russia, and Bangladesh has a non-aggression friendship treaty with India.
Over the past 18 months, Yunus generated hostility with India. So far, there has been no effective initiative to reduce that tension, although anti-India political propaganda in Bangladesh has decreased in recent months.
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The US and India are also maintaining informal contacts with leaders of the Awami League. Political discussions have reportedly taken place about a mid-term election next November if the Tarique Rahman-led government fails to deliver the promised “deliverables” within six months.
Did Kapur leave that message for the new government?
(The writer is a political and economic analyst)
