For the people of Bangladesh, it is an irony of fate that governments which have raised the hope of stability and progress have not lasted for long.
It may be a coincidence that governments which had held out such hopes in the past were secular and democratic ones, while the unstable regimes which succeeded them were adherents of fundamentalist Islamic values.
The newly formed nation, under its first government, was just stabilising after the tumultuous days of genocide and liberation struggle when Prime Minister Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the architect of the liberation struggle, fell to the bullets of assassins on August 15, 1975.
With his assassination, not only was Bangladesh thrown into an era of political uncertainty, with a series of coups and counter-coups, but also was there the gaining of momentum in the growth of Islamic forces.
The military rulers encouraged them to gain political legitimacy.
Under the rule of General Zia-ur-Rahman as the President from 1977 to 1981, Article 12 of the Constitution of Bangladesh, which espoused secularism and the elimination of the abuse of religion for political purposes, was deleted, and Islamic tenets were incorporated before the preamble.
General Zia also made constitutional provisions for the establishment of political parties on the basis of religion and for establishing fraternal relationships with other Muslim states based on Islamic solidarity.
After General Zia’s assassination in a military coup in 1981 and another year of political uncertainty, General H. M. Ershad took over as President in a coup in 1983.
In his eight-year rule, General Ershad made yet another change in the constitution of Bangladesh in 1988, making Islam the state religion.
During Ershad’s rule, Bangladesh witnessed a spurt in the growth of Islamic political parties and Islamic militant organisations; among them Jamaat-e-Islami, Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh and Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami.
Post – Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Bangladesh has seen rules of democratically elected governments run by established political parties under two Prime Ministers: Sheikh Hasina as leader of Awami League and Khaleda Zia as leader of Bangladesh Nationalist Party.
Khaleda Zia was twice Prime Minister of Bangladesh, from 1991 to 1996 and again from 2001 to 2006.
During Ershad’s rule, Khaleda Zia had taken a key role in the movement for democracy through the formation of a seven-party alliance.
Though the Jamaat-e-Islami was a part of the Khaleda Zia government in its second term and minority Hindu community members were at the receiving end during her two terms in power, these were periods of political stability in Bangladesh and a functional parliamentary democracy.
Sheikh Hasina was in office from 1996 to 2001 and then again continuously from 2009 to 2024.
In her second term, Sheikh Hasina amended the constitution again, incorporating secularism as a guiding principle; while Islam continued to be the state religion.
In 2019, the World Economic Forum rated Bangladesh as the fastest growing economy in the Asia Pacific Region; propelled by a robust manufacturing sector and an enormous boom in infrastructure.
Political stability was the key factor behind this progress. There was substantial progress in the garment industry.
The government built the bridge on river Padma by itself, after the exit of the World Bank from the project.
On the flip side, the Sheikh Hasina government has been accused of serious violations of human rights and electoral malpractices.
In the elections in Bangladesh scheduled in the coming February, both these ladies who have the experience of running democratically elected governments under a parliamentary system will be absent from the scene.
Sheikh Hasina is away in exile, facing a death sentence in Dhaka. Her party Awami League has been banned and cannot contest in the polls.
Khaleda Zia is seriously ill and awaiting evacuation from Dhaka to London for treatment. Her return to Bangladesh before February 2026 looks unlikely.
Her absence will make it difficult for the BNP.
This may leave the field open for Islamic fundamentalist parties and groups, which are still struggling to find a mass base.
“Bangladesh saw the rise of far-right forces during last year’s July Uprising, and the upcoming election could be a demonstration of their escalated growth,” political analyst and Bangladesh diplomat Mahfuzur Rahman has been quoted.
Chief Advisor to the interim government of Bangladesh, Mohammed Yunus, has called upon the Bangladesh army to play a historic role in the coming election.
With the army in Bangladesh still rooted in the values of the liberation war and secular credentials, this may be interpreted as a call from the chief executive for a free and fair election.
A constitutional reforms commission appointed by Mohammed Yunus has recommended a constitution that “captures the pluralistic character of the society” and upholds the “multi-ethnic, multi-religious, multilingual and multicultural society.”
Yet, his one-and-a-half-year-long watch has been marked by the strengthening of Islamic values and of fundamentalist parties and groups.
The Constitution Reforms Commission has recommended the deletion of secularism, socialism and nationalism as fundamental principles of the Constitution and of State Policy.
Bangladesh is thus now oscillating between the path of secularism and of fundamentalist Islam, but going by the ground realities, the dice seems to be loaded heavily in favour of the latter.
With Awami League out of the race and BNP facing a vacuum at the top, among the political parties that will be in the fray are the Jamaat-e-Islami and the newly formed National Citizen Party, comprising the leaders of the Students Against Discrimination (SAD), which had staged the so-called July Uprising against the Sheikh Hasina government.
Now the Jamaat-e-Islami is known to have a fundamentalist agenda. Some of its leaders have been tried and sentenced for taking part in the genocide against the Bengali people in East Pakistan in 1971.
The SAD had been formed on the platform of the protection of human rights in Bangladesh during the Awami League rule.
In the wake of the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government, however, there were large-scale attacks on the Hindu minorities and their places of worship.
If they gain ground in the next elections, Bangladesh is likely to witness an upsurge in fundamentalist Islam, unless the leaders of Jamaat-e-Islami and NCP have undergone a metamorphosis of heart.
Much would depend on the Bangladesh army to ensure a level playing field for the secular and democratic forces in the ensuing elections.
The Pakistan army has, however, stepped up its efforts to rebuild ties with the Bangladesh army.
The Bangladesh army, too, is “undertaking extensive efforts to deepen and institutionalise defence relationship with Pakistan.”
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee of the Pakistan army General Shahir Shamshad Mirza visited Bangladesh at the end of October. He was taken to the Sylhet Cantonment and shown training activities.
A high level Bangladesh army delegation went to Pakistan on November 3 to participate in the ‘Rawalpindi Dialogue.’
Pakistan is also helping Bangladesh with fighter jets, tanks and training of the armed forces.
With Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir frequently quoting from holy texts and emphasising the status of Pakistan as a religious state, there is little scope for doubt about the ideological bearings of the Pakistan military.
The Inter-Service Intelligence of Pakistan is in cahoots with Islamist terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.
There is scope for doubt about how far the Bangladesh army, now under the protective wings of the Pakistan army, will help secularism and democracy to prevail in the coming elections.
