India’s Northeast is a region of immense strategic significance, rich cultural heritage, vast natural resources, blessed with great talents in multiple domains, history of chivalry and sacrifices.
It has the potential to serve as India’s gateway to Southeast Asia, yet it remains one of the most volatile parts of the country. Insurgencies, ethnic strife, illegal migration, gun culture and geopolitical threats have hindered its development, thereby, leaving the region economically neglected despite efforts put in by successive governments.
The strife in Myanmar has further exaggerated the security situation on India’s North East States.
Manipur: A Case of Ethnic Divisions and Fifth Generation Warfare
The demand for Scheduled Tribe status by the Meiteis has been a major flashpoint in Manipur, sparking conflict between the valley based Meiteis (53% of the population) and the hill-dwelling Kuki tribes.
Perceived disparities in land ownership and political power have further fuelled resentment.
However, beyond these visible tensions, a more insidious force at play is the Fifth Generation Warfare.
Foreign actors have leveraged disinformation, proxy networks and cyber-influence operations to destabilize the region.
The portrayal of the Manipur crisis as a religious clash between Hindus and Christians by international media has only served to poison public perception and exacerbate divisions.
The reality is that the core of the crisis lies in ethnic identity, land rights, demographic concerns and governance challenges and certainly not religious differences.
So, framing this current ongoing conflict as a Hindu-Christian binary is a deliberate devious attempt to internationalize the issue and open doors for external intervention perhaps.
Selective outrage by Western human rights groups and media has been noticed, while ignoring the violence against Meitei and other communities as also subtle push for international intervention being given, akin to tactics used in some global conflicts
The ongoing conflict is a breeding ground for insurgent groups with external links.
Drug cartels and arms smuggling networks operating in the Golden Triangle have exploited the unrest posing a direct threat to India’s counternarcotics efforts.
The presence of sophisticated weapons including drones among the insurgents clearly suggests the involvement of foreign intelligence agencies aiming to disrupt the region’s stability.
The prevailing situation in Manipur must also not be viewed in isolation merely as an intra-state conflict but rather as part of a broader effort to ignite ethnic unrest across the Northeast.
One piece of evidence which also suggests foreign involvement is the burning of churches by Meitei secessionist organizations like PREPAK, KCP, PLA, UNLF and KYKL.
These incidents were used to portray the Meitei as oppressors against the Christian Kuki-Zo community, potentially implicating the Indian Govt in supporting anti-minority religious activities.
Such events and their attributions are cleverly manipulated to serve the interests of external actors.
The fact of the matter is that the aforementioned organizations are funded and supported by foreign intelligence agencies and have been banned by India’s Home Ministry since last over a decade.
However, international media putting the blame for such actions of these banned organizations on the Indian Government, pointed to a clear attempt by foreign actors to create a false narrative and sow discord between India and her communities.
Mizoram: A Model for Lasting Peace
Mizoram’s insurgency, which lasted from 1966 to 1986, was resolved through a combination of military action, political negotiation and economic incentives.
The signing of the 1986 Mizo Peace Accord was a turning point transforming the Mizo National Front (MNF) from a militant group into a political party and fully integrating Mizoram into India’s democratic framework.
This successful resolution stands as a case study for handling similar conflicts in Manipur as also in Nagaland.
However, the influx of Chin refugees into Mizoram, due to their close ethnic ties with the Mizo people has led to increased vulnerabilities in the region.
Armed groups seeking refuge or attempting to incite unrest not only pose a security challenge but also the surge in Zomi nationalism calling for an autonomous Zo nation.
The current restive situation in Chin state in Myanmar has had a notable impact on neighbouring regions, particularly in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh and Kuki – Zo inhabited areas of Manipur.
Nagaland: A Stalled Peace Process
Despite the signing of the 2015 Framework Agreement with NSCNIM and the 2017 Agreed Position with NNPGs, the final peace settlement in Nagaland still remains elusive.
Armed groups continue to operate maintaining their own militias and parallel structures of governance defying India’s democratic framework.
Similarly, now the UNLF has also not laid down their arms despite signing an agreement with the Government of India.
Moreover, another problem that Nagaland may face sooner than later, is the influx of Naga refugees from Myanmar as the Military Junta and Kachin Independent Army (KIA) are now forcing Nagas based in Myanmar to join and fight for them.
The Emerging Threats to Northeast Stability
With the onset of Myanmar turmoil in Feb 2021 the spillover across Indian borders was a foregone conclusion.
The Northeast’s challenges extend beyond Manipur, Mizoram and Nagaland.
The rise in call of Zo Nationalism essentially to unify Chin, Kuki, Mizo and Zomi communities under a secessionist identity threatens India’s territorial integrity.
The Indian Government’s shift from Look East to Act East in the year 2014 marked a strategic effort to integrate the Northeast into India’s economic and geopolitical framework.
Rail connectivity, new airports and projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project have significantly improved regional accessibility and trade.
However, these developments have also drawn the attention of adversarial powers. Counterinsurgency operations against NSCN factions and ULFA(I) alongside peace accords with Bodo, Karbi and Bru-Reang groups did reduce insurgency related incidents by over 70% after 2014, but Manipur’s crisis showcases how weaponized misinformation can create internal divisions, stall government initiatives and undermine the Act East Policy’s success.
The heightened state of unrest in Chin state has created a conducive environment for increased illicit drug trade in these areas.
With ethnic Zomi rebels taking control of the strategic Kale and Kabaw valleys, it has a direct impact on India’s direct land access to Southeast Asia.
These narrow valleys, located in Myanmar’s Chin and Sagaing State, serve as critical land corridors connecting India’s Northeastern region to the Southeastern part of Asia.
The Zomi rebel-controlled corridor has disrupted trade and transit routes between India and Southeast Asia impacting regional commerce and connectivity.
The restive Mizoram and surrounding Zo-inhabited areas have also undermined the significance of India’s Kaladan project.
This entire scenario, thus, poses significant challenges for India’s geopolitical interests under our Act East policy.
The Golden Triangle’s narcotics trade is one of the major funding sources in fuelling instability in Manipur and other parts of Northeast.
Way Forward for India
India’s Act East Policy has delivered economic and security benefits, but the next phase must focus on resolving ethnic tensions, enhancing border security and countering false propaganda.
Leaving these issues unchecked will only embolden external actors and deepen instability.
An effective mechanism for countering false narratives through media and diplomatic engagement needs to be put in place to prevent external interference.
One very clear indication of foreign involvement, which cannot be ignored, lies in the names of the Zo secessionist organizations, such as Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRA) and ZO Reunification Organization (ZORO).
The absence of the letter ‘R’ in the native Thado (Kuki) and Peite (Zomi) languages suggests that these names are likely to have been coined by individuals who are not Kuki or Zo natives.
This observation points towards potential involvement of foreign intelligence operatives who may have played a role in instigating or manipulating the conflict for their advantage.
Conclusion: Securing the Northeast’s Future
The Northeast’s potential to be an economic and strategic hub for India’s engagement with Southeast Asia hinges on its stability.
The longer the ongoing conflict persists, the more opportunities the external players will have to fuel divisions through disinformation and insurgent funding.
Thus, if left unresolved, tensions in Manipur, Nagaland, Mizoram and South Assam could snowball into a larger security crisis with international ramifications.
India, therefore, must act decisively ensuring that foreign influences are curtailed, ethnic harmony is fostered and insurgent elements are neutralized.
With a strong political push from the Centre duly backed by strong arm security forces and active involvement of community leaders, the region can be broken free from its cycle of conflict and begin to reap its full potential as a thriving gateway to Southeast Asia.
Lt Gen Abhay Krishna (retd), PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SM(G), VSM, – is a former Army Commander of South Western, Eastern and Central Army Commands.
