India’s economy is projected to grow at 6.3-6.8% in the next financial year, said the Economic Survey for 2024-25 tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday.
“The fundamentals of the domestic economy remain robust, with a strong external account, calibrated fiscal consolidation and stable private consumption. On the balance of these considerations, we expect that the growth in FY26 would be between 6.3% and 6.8%,” the survey said.
It flagged the need for “deregulation and reforms at the grassroots level” and the requirement for “economic freedom of individuals and organisations to pursue legitimate economic activity” to improve the overall competitiveness of the economy and to lift trend growth rates.
The official estimate aligns with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) 6.5% forecast but is lower than the World Bank’s 6.7% estimate.
The Survey expects the government’s emphasis on micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and good rabi crop production to accelerate growth and employment in the economy.
It also observes that inflation in the economy is under control, which will pave the way for a stable growth path.
“The government’s proactive policy interventions have been crucial in stabilising inflation. These measures include the strengthening of buffer stocks for essential food items, periodic open market releases and efforts to ease imports during supply shortages. Despite these challenges, there are positive signs for inflation management in India,” it said.
The Economic Survey 2024-25 emphasised the need for strategic and prudent policy management to navigate global challenges and strengthen domestic fundamentals.
It also projected an increase in investment activity, driven by higher public capital expenditure and improving business expectations.
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Food inflation is likely to soften in Q4 of FY25, driven by a good Rabi harvest, the Survey notes, while adding the positive outlook on Rabi production is expected to contain food prices in the first half of fiscal year 2025-26.
However, risks to inflation persist due to adverse weather events and rising international agricultural commodity prices.
