GUWAHATI: As Assam gears up for the 2026 Assembly elections, Hailakandi in the Barak Valley is no longer the predictable seat it once was. What had long been considered a safe bastion of minority-backed politics is fast turning into a volatile electoral battleground, with shifting loyalties, internal party churn and a crowded field of hopefuls across parties.
No party has declared its candidate yet, but the signals on the ground suggest a high-stakes contest is brewing. The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), which dominated the constituency in recent years, is on the defensive. The Congress senses a chance to reclaim lost ground, while the BJP, buoyed by demographic changes, is searching for a candidate who can finally crack the seat.
Hailakandi (Assembly constituency No. 121) has traditionally favoured the Congress and later the AIUDF, largely due to consolidated minority support. In the 2021 Assembly polls, AIUDF’s Zakir Hussain Laskar won comfortably, polling over 55 per cent of the vote and defeating the BJP’s Milan Das by a wide margin.
That political comfort, however, has eroded. The recent delimitation exercise has subtly altered the constituency’s voter profile, increasing the relative share of Hindu voters and making electoral arithmetic far more competitive. More damaging for AIUDF has been the suspension of its sitting MLA Zakir Hussain Laskar for six years in late 2024 — a move that has weakened the party’s organisational hold in the area.
Post–2024 Lok Sabha trends and early surveys indicate a steady drift of minority voters away from AIUDF, many of them gravitating back towards the Congress. Projections suggest the party may struggle to retain more than a handful of seats across Assam in 2026, raising serious doubts over its ability to defend Hailakandi. So far, AIUDF has remained silent on its candidate, adding to the uncertainty.
Sensing the shift, the Congress has moved decisively. Party president Gaurav Gogoi has firmly ruled out any alliance with AIUDF, making it clear that Congress will contest independently in over 100 constituencies. His repeated statements over the past two months underscore the party’s strategy to consolidate minority and secular votes under its own banner.
Within Congress circles, Rahul Roy — son of veteran leader and former minister Gautam Roy — is widely discussed as a potential candidate. However, Roy has not yet formally joined the party or applied for a ticket. With the deadline for ticket applications extended till January 28, the door remains open for late developments. Another aspirant is Naiwritaa Joy Shukla, granddaughter of former Karimganj MP Lalit Mohan Suklabaidya, who has sought a Congress ticket from both Silchar and Hailakandi.
The BJP, meanwhile, sees an opening but is grappling with a lack of consensus. Several aspirants are in the fray. District BJP president Kalyan Goswami is one, though he faces pressure from the high command following past corruption allegations and his 2024 resignation as chairman of the Hailakandi Municipal Board after a no-confidence motion.
Saikat Dattachoudhury, the party’s organising secretary from Ramakrishna Nagar, is another contender, credited internally with strengthening the BJP’s grassroots network. Former ABVP leader Milan Das, who has contested earlier elections, is also eyeing a comeback, though his frequent political switches and alleged role during delimitation may work against him.
Other names doing the rounds include Sekhar Dey, former OSD to ex-Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal; tea tribe leaders Biswajit Koiri and BJP state vice-president Moon Swarnakar; and Ajoy Kumar Dutta, former member of the Assam State Commission for Protection of Child Rights, who is said to enjoy the backing of a section of senior party leaders and has influence among women and child welfare groups.
Adding another layer of intrigue is Rahul Roy’s dilemma. Sections of the BJP are reportedly keen on him as a candidate, while others fear that fielding a Congress-identified face without full organisational backing could backfire badly. Roy, for his part, is believed to be weighing his options carefully.
As things stand, Hailakandi appears headed for a triangular contest. AIUDF is struggling to protect its traditional base, Congress is re-emerging as a serious challenger amid changing voter loyalties, and the BJP is attempting to capitalise on delimitation-driven shifts despite its historically weak footing in the constituency.
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With candidates yet to be finalised and strategies still evolving, Hailakandi’s political outcome remains wide open. What is clear, however, is that the once-safe seat is set for one of its most closely watched and fiercely fought elections in years.
