Bangladesh is set to vote in a parliamentary election and a nationwide reform referendum on February 12, an unprecedented dual exercise taking place in a radically altered political environment marked by uncertainty, exclusion and debate over democratic legitimacy.
More than 127 million voters are eligible to cast their ballots in what is widely seen as the country’s most consequential election in decades and the first since the mass uprising in August 2024 that ended the rule of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina.
The polls will be held under an interim administration led by Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus.
Yunus has described the election and referendum as a “grand festival of democracy,” promising the freest and most peaceful vote in Bangladesh’s history and presenting the exercise as the foundation of a “new Bangladesh.”
However, analysts and observers caution that the absence of the Awami League, long the country’s dominant political force, has narrowed electoral competition and left many voters uncertain about their choices.
The Awami League was disbanded under the Anti-Terrorism Law months after Hasina was forced into exile in India following violent student-led protests known as the July Uprising.
Although barred from contesting, the party is believed to retain a substantial support base, much of which now finds itself politically sidelined.
“I don’t feel enthusiastic,” said Kader Mia, a tailor in Dhaka and a lifelong Awami League supporter. “I am not sure if I will vote. I don’t know whom I should vote for.”
Another supporter in Barishal, who declined to be named, said abstaining from voting could expose his family to risks, fearing identification as a Hasina loyalist amid heightened political tensions.
With the Awami League out of the race, the contest is largely between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), widely regarded as the frontrunner, and Jamaat-e-Islami along with its allies.
Yunus has suggested that Awami League voters are now “up for grabs,” while Hasina has hinted at the possibility of a boycott by her supporters, warning that a government “born of exclusion” would deepen divisions and prolong instability.
Sensing an opening, the BNP has sought to appeal to Awami League-leaning voters by emphasising secular nationalism and invoking the legacy of the 1971 Liberation War, a cornerstone of Awami League identity.
The party formally ended its alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami in August 2025, a move analysts see as an effort to broaden its appeal.
Senior BNP leaders, including Tarique Rahman and Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, have increasingly referenced liberation-era values in recent speeches.
A recent panel survey by research group Innovision, published in leading Bangladeshi newspapers, found that a significant portion of Awami League supporters remain undecided. According to the survey, 41.3 per cent had not made a final choice, while 32.9 per cent leaned towards the BNP and 13.2 per cent towards Jamaat-e-Islami.
Concerns over political inclusion have also been voiced by civil society figures.
Veteran economist Rehman Sobhan warned that democracy cannot function without accommodating all major political actors, arguing that a sustainable democratic order would require finding ways to reintegrate the Awami League into the political process.
International attention has also focused on the polls. Several lawmakers in the United States and the United Kingdom have urged the interim government to allow the Awami League to participate, citing the need for broader legitimacy.
Alongside the parliamentary election, voters will be asked to weigh in on a nationwide referendum on the July National Charter, an 84-point reform agenda unveiled by Yunus in October last year.
The charter aims to reshape Bangladesh’s political and governance framework, which Yunus has described as a transformation “from barbarism to civilisation.”
The interim government’s active advocacy for a “yes” vote has drawn criticism from legal experts and opposition voices, who argue that the administration should remain neutral.
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On January 29, the Election Commission directed government officials to halt campaigning for the reform package, warning that such actions could constitute a punishable offence.
Legal experts have also questioned the constitutional basis of the referendum, noting that Bangladesh’s Constitution does not explicitly provide for plebiscites.
Others have criticised the referendum’s structure, which presents voters with a binary “yes” or “no” choice based on four broad questions drawn from the charter, arguing that it oversimplifies complex and far-reaching reforms.
Despite the controversy, Yunus has urged voters to endorse the proposals.
In a televised address earlier this month, he called on citizens to vote “yes” to help shape the country’s future, saying the combined election and referendum would determine Bangladesh’s direction for the next hundred years.
As polling day approaches, uncertainty over voter participation, political inclusion and the reform agenda continues to cast a long shadow over what the interim government hopes will mark a decisive turning point in the nation’s history.
