The developments that are currently beleaguering India’s eastern flank have become ominous, especially with Bangladesh seemingly careening out of control.
Latest reports seem to indicate that the country’s army is all poised to intervene and take over the reins of governance. Indeed, if past entrails are read, it will inform that New Delhi was able to engineer better relationships with Dhaka whenever the army was in the seat of power. A dispensation that would have a single pointsman (General Waker-uz-Zaman), and one that possesses an iron hand would be in India’s national interest. The fact that Gen Zaman would act against the radical Islamist forces once the army is in the driving seat should be music to Indian ears.
The illegitimate interim authority of Mohammad Yunus has brought India-Bangladesh relationship to the brink of disaster. Actions and statements emanating from Dhaka have forced the Indian foreign minister to issue stern warnings to Yunus’ establishment not to “normalise terrorism”.
Below is a set of recommendations which policymakers in New Delhi may prefer to consider while evolving a dynamic strategic-tactical approach along the broader external security-diplomatic metric.
1) India’s forward intelligence engineering in Bangladesh has been crippled over the years. This is evident from the fact that New Delhi was caught unawares about not only the plot against Sheikh Hasina, but about senior Pakistani military officers’ visits to Bangladesh and to sensitive areas along the India-Bangladesh border.
It is all very well to say that the Indian agencies had been “tracking” the movement of the ISI and Pakistan army personnel. Indeed, if it had knowledge about such a “tie-up”, then it should have taken steps to prevent it by taking recourse to a variety of means well within India’s capabilities. The authors are clear that the institutions charged with such tasks are manned by very capable personnel. What is lacking is the need to shake off the insouciance that has set in, in the leadership of the security apparatus.
2) Gen Waqer-uz-Zaman spent considerable time in the United States immediately after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina. Indian agencies, a la what has been recommended above by way of India benefitting as a result of a military takeover in Bangladesh, must ferret out the provenance of Gen Zaman. It is the considered view of the authors that (despite what Trump has said) “Deep States” of the United States were involved in the putsch.
3) Unorthodox methodologies must be put into motion whereby the new political party, the Ganatantrik Chhatra Sangsad (Democratic Students’ Council) which comprises elements from the “Students Against Discrimination” is incapacitated in its nest and is unable to cull a constituency for itself in Bangladesh. It is reported that the general public is against the students. India must ascertain that the populace of Bangladesh resists the Ganatantrik Chhatra Sangsad from the very outset.
4) India must (post the imminent military takeover) open the gates for the people of Bangladesh seeking medical care and education in India. New Delhi must separate the wheat from the chaff and “inform” the people of Bangladesh that India steadfastly stands for a peaceful Bangladesh and it does not want to alienate a population which it had helped during the crisis of 1970-71 when Pakistan unleashed a reign of terror in its eastern wing.
5) New Delhi must take immediate steps to empower secular Bangladesh. It is evident that anti-India forces have bludgeoned this constituency into a numbed silence. New Delhi must utilise the good offices of the personages who had fled Bangladesh and are currently in India. It is known to the authors of this article that some very senior intelligence agency and law-enforcement people from Bangladesh are presently in India.
6) No effort should be spared to provide succour to Bangladesh’s minorities who are in the grip of fear as a consequence of the free run that Islamist parties and extremist groupings have been enjoying since 5 August 2024. India’s foreign and home ministries should not shy away from clearly declaring that any harm caused to the hapless minorities will have consequences – real consequences.
7) The policy to discontinue issuing visas to Bangladeshi nationals must remain in place for an unspecified length of time and certainly till normalcy – political and social – returns to Bangladesh.
8) Should the political situation in Bangladesh deteriorate, the Indian establishment could consider temporarily halting all inland trade in commodities, essential or otherwise. A recalcitrant Dhaka cannot take things for granted: anti-Indian activities that potentially have implications for internal and external security must be met with matching measures for which New Delhi cannot – and should not – feel squeamish. Realism demands that New Delhi adopt measures that will safeguard – and advance – its internal and external interests.
9) New Delhi must forthwith open a broad dialogue with all forces in Bangladesh that favour an early return to democratic normalcy. This could be in the form of open and transparent engagement with some of the main political parties, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the Awami League, the leftist outfits and secular and nationalist groups who continue to have faith in normal politics and democratic practices.
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10) All efforts – overt and covert – must be made to expose the grand conspiracy that Yunus, the students’ coordinators and the Islamist outfits (specifically, individual actors) hatched with foreign agencies to unseat Hasina and usher in chaos and instability. Again, reticence in doing so goes against the tenets of realism. Besides, Bangladeshis must know the full extent of the collusion, plotting and machination that were set in motion within and outside Bangladesh.
